• Some Chinese commentator complained why the Qing empire was not included in the "Great Nations". After all, Qing still had over 1/4 of the world's GDP until mid-1800s. Qing was also a very effectively managed empire in terms of direct control. I think the key word is the the term "modern". The series was very adamant in stating that Britain was the FIRST modern nations in the world after Glorious Revolution, and Qing was definitely not a "modern" nation in this sense. The 3 nations preceded Britains all made contact with the whole earth (including Asia and the New World), while Qing was a local empire not different than Han or Persia of 2000 years ago.
  

1. According to the series, cultural influence is important, so these colonial empires, even though largely disintegrated by now, still maintain cultural influences to the areas they once occupied
2. The influence (and contribution) to the world is one of the most important measure for a Great Nation given by the series, many of them (e.g. USA) influenced the world much more that what the map below paints
   
3. France was hailed as a nation that influenced the war much more than the hard power it projected (i.e. despite its total failure in all the major wars it participated, including the Napolean wars. However, the program acknowledged Napolean for spreading the spirits of French revolution across the European continent, and in its emphasis on rule of law, the Napolean Code)
   

• 郑和下西洋神话批判
• 林行止：阿扁不走 家人受辱 各方有利
• Xinhua Stays Naughty
• Price negotiation - example
• (V) 悶鍋 海協會記者會
• 在台華之外的紅藍綠女
• Tibet pictures
• Tiger Farm, solution by Chinese capitalists
• 台灣未來真正最重要的決定力量
• 为什么是孔丘而不是李聃
• Ally vs pseudo-protectorate: US Beef in Taiwan vs Korea/Japan
• 是谁“瓜分”了中国的中央权力
• (V) pan-Green revenge on Ma Receipt
• Why North Korea Is Viewed as More Curiosity Than Threat
• 华为真相--在矛盾和平衡中前进的“狼群”
• A Chinese province woos Taiwan for the sake of its own economy
• 西藏的政治归属
• 台股日月無光？

• North Korea Nuclear Test - A Technical Analysis
• Shanghai and Tokyo
• North Korea pictures
• Uzbek MTV Shahrizoda and Setora
• Speedboat thr' broken bridge - Dandong/Sinujiu
• 逃出朝鲜

• "The Departed" thread
• Vietnam lesson for Iraq
• Dense Money = Dense Networks
• Ten Worst Internet Acquisitions Ever

• Explicit acknowledgement from the producer: The director (who is also the head of CCTV), Zhao Huayong, wrote in the preface (there is an accompanying book, in case the audience missed the messages) that, "The CCP Politburo attended a seminar in Nov 2003, the topic was the lessons of the development of the 9 major world powers from 1500 to today......These power has all hurted other nations, including China, in sometime on their path to great become great power, what kind of attitude and embracement should we adopt toward them? What experiences and learning should we find from their paths?" -- so even if this is not an instruction from the Politburo, the fact that CCTV dares to use the Politburo seminar in its promotion of the program tells us something. (Other interviews with the production crew here)
  
• "2003 年11月24日，中共中央政治局组织了一次集体学习，内容是“15世纪以来世界主要国家发展历史”。这次学习在社会上引起了广泛关注，人们在想，斯时斯 地，打开尘封已久的历史，所为何来?...新中国的几代领导人反复强调：我们的发展，要吸收和借鉴全人类的文明成果。这些曾经在近现代历史上引导世界潮流 的大国，在历史上或多或少都对其他国家和民族造成过伤害，包括中国。今天，在中华民族重新崛起的进程中，我们应该以什么样的胸怀和态度看待它们？中国的和 平发展可以从中借鉴什么样的经验和教训？
• Coincidence in timing: The documentary took 3 full years to produce. So it started in 2003, roughly right after the Politburo meeting. Either the CCTV director overheard the Politburo discussion and charged ahead or he received some instruction from the Politburo, as it is an unlikely coincidence in time. Since even the head of CCTV is probably not a very powerful figure compared with the Politburo, it is more likely the latter
• Careful choice of word: The fact that the title was called "Rising", instead of "Development" explains that this documentary is for domestic consumptions. Because many Chinese citizen view the choice of the word "development" to be too weak and they still would like to see China "rising"; that it chose to use the word "great" instead of the more often used word "strong" in Chinese history is also important -- see below on definition of "Great Nation"
  
• Pragmatic purpose: Regardless of the intent, the result of airing this documentary is that the Chinese citizens will get the messages conveyed in this series, and such message must not contradict the party line as otherwise it would have been banned. Therefore, for all practical purposes it is in line with the view of the Politburo (including the decision to skip the old teaching that colonialism pillaging crucially contributed to the initial stage of capitalism)
  
• Heavyweight advisor team: this particular program from CCTV was able to enlist the best of the Chinese scholars, including internationally renowned scholar Wang Jisi (who was instrumental in the Hu-Zoellick meeting last year), in its advisor team. More likely, if one believes the theory that the Politburo ordered the production, Wang himself is the brain behind this series, and he probably carefully selected the messages to be conveyed in this series. In addition, Wang Jisi, together with historian Qian Shengdan who both were interviewed in the program and led discussion in the Politburo seminar, are said to be the mastermind behind this program (source).
  

1. Great Nation = Innovation and contribution to its own people and the world: innovation of Thomas Edison, Dutch shipbuilders, Japanese businesses were discussed throughout the program. In the Finale the head of Chinese Diplomatic Institute Wu jianmin was quoted as saying something like this, "Great nation contributes to the world development, innovation is essential for making such contribution, and innovation is not possible if free thinking is constrained" (一个国家要崛起，它思想得创新吧，对吧。如果全是老思想，国家能崛起吗？崛起不了。思想如果都束缚住了，能创新吗？创新不了。所以文化的作用在这里出现了。)
2. Aggression through force is to be avoided at all costs, as demonstrated by the example of Germany and Japan:
   • It showed the picture (below) of Warsaw Kneeling along with the comment "The moment Brandt kneels down was the moment Germany stood up in the world", sending the strongest message on its view that aggression is the wrong path to building a Great Nation;
   • in addition, it carefully defined the Meiji Restoration as a 100 year process (instead of 20-40 years, ending in the wars in 1895 and 1905), ending in 1968 when Japan finanlly rose with respect from the world through its economic success, and discounting the Japan's military success as short term aberration (in the Japan episode, the conclusion for Japan's lesson is that a Great Nation should (a) Bring prosperity and happiness to its own people (b) Bring peace and security to the world
   • The Japan lesson is further reinforce when it looks back to the lessons of the Iberian powers, conluding that without building one's own ability to generate wealth the rise is short-lived, and wealth through expansion and aggression are not to be depended upon
     
   • thirdly, the program made it clear that the modern world order is one in which competition is by business and innovation, and contribution to humanity and scientific knowledges, not by military success.
     

3. Rule of law and building of a system: in almost all episodes, especially that of UK and US, the rule of law were emphasized. It was repeated again when it discussed the rise of Germany, and a long section on Thomas Edison and that US made the protection of intellectual property into its constitution, then again on how innovation in information technology helped US to lead the world again economically
   
4. Focus on internal development and building sustainable capabilities: the Iberian powers were quoted as short-lived because they did not build the system and sustainable capability with all the wealth they accumulated from the New World. furthermore, this quote from Professor Zheng Yongnian of Nottingham University is note-worthy, "一个国家外部的崛起，实际上是它内部力量的一个外延。国家内部的制度还没有健全的情况下，很难成为一个大国，即使成为一个大国，也不是可持续的。"
5. A lot of attention is given to building a system and ensuring the fundamentals, both economically and politically: an example is that of the Dutch bank which lent to the enemy Spain during war, maintaining its independence, the other are that of the Dutch government in 1600s which were formed by capitalist merchants, the narration talks about the Dutch paintings which portray the citizen (vs nobles and religious figures in other countries) with admiration
   
6. For catching up 'great nations' (e.g Germany, Japan, Russia), the government must play the leading role: This is perhaps the most controversal point in this program, IMHO, as it not only emphasized the role of government "planning", praising its contribution to the Russian industrialization in the 1920s-1930s, it also praises the Keysian economics which influenced the role fo the governement in Rosevelt administration -- my concern is that it is difficult and tempting to forget the fact that government role is needed only when the problem is so serious that the invisible hand is unable to cope with it, and Chinese bureacracts, like bureacrats elsewhere will soon forget the principle that government intervention is needed only as a last resort)
7. Together with the government role above, the views on USSR's "worthy experiment" on socialism and planned economy is positively ambiguous. My speculation is that the Politburo could not agree on these issues and decided they will keep the conclusion open (again, this is assuming that the program is part of the state propaganda). Same can be said about when globalization will truly make aggressive war obsolete, as in the Finale it stated such time will come even though if not in the medium term.
   

• US or UK style Democracy will be the long term goal: the program clearly stated Britian and USA (along with Holland, in which the discussion also focused on people's choice and innovation "有历史学家认为，近五百年来，真正意义上拥有过世界霸权的只有三个国家：荷兰、英国和美国。这三个国家对市场经济进行了接力棒式的创新和发展。学者们还 认为，英美两国为经济发展提供了相应的制度保障。") are the only sustainable Great Nations among the 9 nations examined, and devoted a whole episode on the Magna Carta and Glorious Revolution, and also half an episode on US Consitution making. Many scholars were also quoted as supporting the view that the political/societal infrastructure play an essential role in the rise of UK and US -- all these are challenging the traditional party line that there are many types of definition for so-called "democracy" and that "China is different". In fact, the director stated that China has no choice but to learn from them and take the same path; it is also important to note how much it praises the contribution to humanity by the French people, in particular, the concept of "Freedom, Equality and Fraternity". The amount of discussion given to Liberty, equality, fraternity motto of the French revolution and the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen surprised me. This may not be new to readers outside China, but it is probably the first time it was given such high profile and positive exposure in mass media in China (screenshot below: 200th anniversary of Bastille Day -- where bikers marched before the fat lady sang, to remember the event 40 days before that ceremony) -- see also Qian and Wang quotes below
  

• To make China an open society before turning it into a democracy, i.e. I expect there will be free speech and perhaps even less control on media: "..so Britain from 1688 onwards was not [yet] a democratic society, but it was an open society, in which ideas can be readily spread to a wider circle of the people, ..... that's a great achievement, and we were the first country in the world to achieve it." Harry Dickenson of Royal Historical Society was quoted as saying. Wu Jianmin's quote of no constrain in academic study also support this view (although academic research is pretty much free in China today already, I am not sure if the leader realize innovation happens also outside the academic circle and it is such innovation that fuels the academic breakthrough as well); Tolerance of difference is also emphasized in quoting Elizabeth I's tolerating Shakespear's negative portrayal of monarchs and women. (在 莎士比亚的历史剧当中，君主往往是反面角色。英国女王伊丽莎白一世当然知道这一点，她却并没有下令禁止演出莎士比亚的戏剧。尽管在《哈姆雷特》这样的剧 中，就有“脆弱啊，你的名字是女人！”这样的台词，但这并没有影响伊丽莎白女王就坐在舞台对面的包厢里看戏。 ... 女王的宽容，成就了莎士比亚的艺术高度，而女王的开明并不仅仅表现在对待艺术的态度上，在处理国家事务时，她也表现出高超的技巧和智慧。女王明白：权力的 基础是全体英国人组成的民族，没有民众的支持做后盾，王朝就没有立身的可能。为了获得民众的支持，伊丽莎白一世在强化王权的同时，恪守了祖先传下来的一个 重要的政治传统)
• China is determined to play by the rule of the modern world, and to make compromise both internally and externally (China already compromised with the US in many internsational issues and began its rapproachment with Japan): much tiem was spent on how compromise among different groups have led to the forming of democratic gevernments in Holland, UK and US. The producer said in an interview explicitly on this as well (see this interview with one of the producers). In the Finale it mentioned explicity that "No great nation was built by defeating the hegemon at the time". Wang Jisi further commented that although US was involved in aggressive war in the North American continent when it expanded, such aggression are not the contributing factors to the rise of US
  

• The program stated that economist Friedrich List was instrumental in the unification of Germany in 19th century, in that he advocated unification by peace, not by force, and specifically through economic integration. Prussia created a common market without tariff before it could formally unify Germany. This was cleverly done through the mouth of a Ruetlingen University Professor (where List resided). Such strategy is already in place when China deals with the Taiwan problem
  

中国北京大学历史学系 教授 钱乘旦：

英国最早地确立了现代的国家制度。比如说我们现在熟悉的内阁制、君主立宪制、两党制、政府对议会负责等等这样的一套政治制度，在英国都是最早地确立。这样的政治制度能够使得这个国家长治久安，长久地保持一种稳定的状态，所以对经济发展是有利的。

Qian (Professor, Beijing University; speaker in the Politburo seminar)

Britain was the very first nation to establish the modern nation system. Take for example, political systems such as the now familiar cabinet system, monarch constitution system, 2 party system, parliament system, etc., were first established in Britain. Such kind of political system ensure the long term stability and security of this nation, it was able to maintian the stable status for a very long period of time, so that it is beneficial to its economic development

中国北京大学国际关系学院 院长 王缉思：

欧洲移民到了美国以后，等于是在一个新大陆上建立了一个崭新的国家。这样的一个国家，它有一个至高无上的《宪法》，在《宪法》下面有一套很完整的法制体系，通过这个权力制衡，相对来说呢，就推动了社会生产力的发展。

Wang (Director of Institute for International Relations, Beijing University -- was said to be a key advisor to Hu Jintao on international affairs, esp to US)

When European immigrants arrived at the American continent, they were building a brand new nation on this new continent. This country has a supreme "constitution", under the "constitution" there is a complete set of legal system, through such a mechanism of power checking [judiciary, excutive and legislative], the productivity of the society was pushed forward.

---

These two key advisors to the programs did not say anything else in the Finale,
and they made explicitly clear what they thought regarding the connection of a "political system" to "economic development"! There is reason to believe that CCP leadership got it, and we are going to witness fundamental changes in China in the coming years, not immediately, but in 3-10 years, step by step, perhaps.

"Rise of the Great Nation" 大国崛起 is a new TV documentary aired by China's CCTV this month. It runs in parallel to Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of Great Power, and a similar documentary series 18 years ago, The River Elegy (河殇).

• (Paul Kennedy interview conversations were actually shown in many episodes)

1. it broke a lot of taboos in China;
2. it tried hard to look at more fundamental drivers of changes (even though they may be obvious to some of us) and spelled them out quite unambiguously to Chinese audiences; e.g. the honest discussion about the pros and cons of bottom-up vs top-down approach in th development of a nation, and even a favor to the bottom-up approach; the unreserved praise of Freedom and Equality as the definition of a Great Nation in the "France" episode
   
3. I have a feeling that it will be more influential than River Elegy, and possibly show us what lessons China's historians and scholars (and perhaps the CCP leaders as well) have learned about these stories. (note: some alleged that this is based on a seminar for the CCP Politburo in 2003, and hence the documentary is probably an idea of the Politburo and a prelude to the next wave of reform in China)
4. If you have watched the 200th anniversary Bastille day parade in Paris (screenshot above) in that fateful year, you would probably understand why I would compare the Great Nations with River Elegy
   

• 一 向大鳴大放的民進黨，成為一言堂，貪瀆的人沒事，批評貪瀆的人反而要被移送中評會，民進黨到底為什麼變成這樣？又怎麼連反都不敢反？有人說，「黨沒有分裂 本錢、天王間的恐怖平衡，保住了扁的地位。最佳切割點應在年底北高選舉後。」立委黃偉哲表示：「病人在病重時，是否適合再做大手術？」
• 但 其實，追根究柢起來，明年的「立委初選」就是他們自我閹割的癥結。一位同樣不願具名的南部立委不諱言地表示：「黨內各個有意參選的人，為了順利爭取提名出 線，現在的﹃不語﹄是理所當然的。因為他必須考慮到後果，如果得罪了深綠選民，絕對在初選中討不到便宜。」民進黨的初選制度，是採三○％的黨內黨員投票； 加上七○％的民調為基礎來決定候選人。
• 不過，如果是考慮初選，由深綠主控的黨員投票目前祇占三○％；具決定性的還是七○％的民調，雖然淺綠與中間選民已傾向不表態，又為什麼沒人考慮「造反」，以呼喚出這群不表態的選民衝高民調數字呢？
• 最 主要的原因是，民調公司的尋找和題目的設計、訂定，都由黨中央決定，而黨中央一片保扁意識，與黨中央作對會有什麼下場？再者，民進黨前民調中心主任吳祥榮 表示，今年的全代會確定明年立委初選的民調採用新的方式，也就是「排藍式民調」，亦即，會在題目中設計一題題目，問受訪者的政黨傾向，如為支持泛藍者，就 不予採用，這是「為了確保初選勝出的候選人，確實受到民進黨支持者的認同。」他曾說：「以往沒有將支持藍軍的樣本數排掉，容易造成選出來的代表有代表性不 足的問題。敵對方會刻意在民調上支持某人，但此人在真正代表民進黨出來參選時並不會當選，所以現階段的民調方式需做改變。」
• 但這樣的改 變雖使得提名人更為「正綠軍」，卻也使得板塊不大的深綠選民，除了穩穩控制住黨員投票這一部分的結果外，也可以將力量延伸至另外的七○％，這也就是為什 麼，陳水扁與保扁的黨中央都清楚，祇要控制深綠，就扼制了派系與有意參選公職的人的咽喉。這樣的邏輯，就可以理解為什麼民進黨這次會如此表現。

1. Weaker quake (of 1/6 the strength)
2. Deeper epicenter (28.5km below surface)
3. Direction of the quake was not as vertical as that in Sumatra
   

China

• 郑和下西洋神话批判
• 林行止：阿扁不走 家人受辱 各方有利
• Xinhua Stays Naughty
• Price negotiation - example
• (V) 悶鍋 海協會記者會
• 在台華之外的紅藍綠女

Rest of Asia

• North Korea Nuclear Test - A Technical Analysis